Yesterday's Weather Rule

A legend says that there was a government that spent millions of dollars on a weather prediction satellite. After a big effort and long time they developed a thing that was able to accurately predict the weather with 70% success rate. It was quite good until somebody realized that if they simply said that today's weather will be the same as yesterday's weather they'd also have the accuracy of 70%. The idea is that you can predict what's gonna happen from what already happened.
In the scrum process, this principle helps us to avoid overcommitting. The rule says "Don't take more to the next sprint than you delivered in the previous sprint". It can perfectly happen that the team cannot deliver the whole sprint commitment. But it is very important to take appropriate steps in order to keep this problem under control. And applying the yesterday's weather rule is the basic thing that you can do. Just reduce the sprint commitment of the next sprint to the same amount that you were able to deliver and if you still have a problem do it again.
2/24/2017

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